http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-04/donald-trump-s-very-human-failing

Be well.

Roger

If between now and then he doesn't do a ton of homework, I'll be surprised and disappointed and he'll fully deserve to lose. I think he'll buckle down and do the homework. But I could be wrong!

OK, let’s agree to disagree on this one. But one last comment: I just watched the last Republican debate. Donald is no longer a kid in a crowd of 10 yelling insults and one-liners. He is now one of four. And they are actually asking him questions and pointing out contradictions, flip flopping and the total lack of specificity in his response. And they are following up and not letting him get away with total bullshit. How is he going to do when it is just him and Clinton on the stage, and there is no crowd to hide behind? I predict that that will not be fun for our side. It will be excruciating.

Be well.

Roger

My thought is that Trump is an egomaniac who thought it would be really great to be President but has given very little thought to what he’ll do when he gets there, but that if he DOES get there he’s a practical guy who will make smart decisions. I don’t buy into the “crony capitalist” thing– remember, he’s a real estate developer who has to navigate though all kinds of zoning laws, NIMBY protesters, environmental rules, tax abatement rules, etc., to get anything done, and I guarantee you that he would have much preferred to do all his building in a much less regulated environment and understands that ALL businesses would prefer the same.

I think we both agree that the guy’s kind of an asshole– it just comes down to whether or not (if elected) he’ll be “OUR” asshole, lol. Regardless, it’s sure gonna be a fun campaign if he goes up against Hillary.

As I pointed out in my blog “Trump: Crony Capitalist Par Excellence,” Trump is a firm believer in and prior practiser of crony capitalism. Do you think that Trump would kill the Exim bank? What about Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac? Although Clinton would be a Big Government (tax/redistribute) president, there is good reason that Trump would be an equally Big Government (crony capitalism) president.

There is also the politics of it. If we keep a Republican congress, then it would be easy for them to stand up to a Democratic president. But standing up to a Republican one who proposes looney ideas (ie., Trump), would be practically impossible. The balance of powers breaks down when the same party controls multiple branches of government.

I wouldn’t want to have a drink with Cruz either. But, then again, I would run from having a drink with Trump. But I am not sure that is the major criterion. Sure, I don’t like Cruz on social issues and I hate his flagrant religiosity, but are Trump’s phoney and opportunistic stands on major religious and other social issues any better? Trump is more likely to ignore his current pandering to the religious right than Cruz is, but isn’t his hypocrisy at least a little sickening?

As for your friend’s business experiences with Trump, I can’t really comment. Except that I have a friend who did a deal with Trump’s team about 10 years ago and was then brought into to “kiss the Pope’s ring” at the end of the negotiation. He was then treated to a 45 minute stream of consciousness ramble the only consistent purpose of which was to say how great Trump is. He came away from this meeting thinking that Trump was totally senile — and this was 10 years ago; I doubt that Trump has gotten better. So, two conflicting anecdotes. I don’t know which is right, but judging by the behavior of Trump that I have seen in speeches and debates, I tend to believe the “Trump is a senile asshole” story.

Roger

Your point on Trump’s tax plan is well-taken, so if the rates need to be 5% higher so be it– it’ll still be FAR better than anything Hillary will propose. Better yet, lower the rates even more and eliminate the mortgage-interest and charitable gift deductions (both political non-starters, of course).

Big picture: Trump had a plan, and that plan was/is first “to win” and THEN to “get specific.” Seeing as “the specifics” from Cruz and Clinton are non-starters for me and I know that Trump is a very practical guy who’s fairly libertarian on social issues, yes, I’m willing to roll the dice on him.

As an aside, someone I know here in New York has had multiple business dealings with Trump and is a lifelong Democrat/big Hillary supporter. He said Trump is a first class jerk in business negotiations (i.e., “very tough”) whom he despises, and yet grudgingly admits that as President, when it comes down to making specific decisions his experience with Trump (whom again, he DOESN’T like) tells him that the guy will most likely make the right choices.

His tax proposal is, to put it very mildly, far from revenue neutral. The last comments I have seen on this (http://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-candidates-need-better-pro-growth-tax-plans-1456695969) estimate, on a bipartisan basis, that Trump’s plan would increase the deficit by $10 trillion over the next 10 years, making it the least deficit neutral of all the plans by a factor of 4. It is also rated to generated the least growth bang for the buck. This “plan” is pure campaign bullshit. It will be DOA.

Regarding healthcare, I see that Trump has just released his healthcare plan. Prior to this, all he has released in the statement that “we are going to replace Obamacare with something great — cheaper and better.” And he has also said that he is going to allow insurance companies to complete across state lines; I am pretty sure that you will agree that, although this is a good idea (that many others have suggested), it is not sufficient to solve our health care crisis. I will review what Trump has just put up on his campaign website, but if it is anything like his earlier position papers, it will be long on verbiage, short on details, and totally void of numbers. But we will see.

By the way, while you are looking at Trump’s campaign web page, you might want to compare it to Cruz’s (or to the “low energy” efforts of Jeb Bush, which has now been taken down, unfortunately). (Rubio’s is structured a different way so it is not comparable.) Notice the difference? Until this latest effort, Trump had position papers on 5 subjects. Cruz has papers on 9 subjects and has had them up there for months. My recollection is that Bush’s website had position papers on 13 subjects and they were up there from the beginning. Kasich has position papers on 9 subjects, also up there from the beginning. Ditto pretty much all the other candidates (Christie, Fiorina, etc). Who is the only one who hasn’t been doing his homework? Who is the only one who is basically telling us very little and saying “trust me”? It’s The Donald. Don’t you find this at least slightly insulting?

Mark, like me, you have been an investor for most of your professional life. What do you think of someone who comes to you with a proposition containing very little detail and almost no numbers? That’s what I thought. Why do you apply a different standard when you are making political decisions?

Roger

(That’s assuming this tax proposal is at least deficit neutral– I’ve heard some skepticism about that.)

Roger