Comments on: Pensions and Other Things http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/ Economics, Policy, Finance and General Culture Fri, 22 Mar 2019 01:56:16 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.13 By: Roger http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7289 Mon, 18 May 2015 08:41:28 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7289 I am not really familiar with the situation with the life insurance companies in the early 1980s, but it does sound like there might be some major differences. If the bond portfolios were long duration in order to match long duration insurance liabilities, then it sounds like they did have an economic hedge — long duration and fixed on each side of the balance sheet — although it also sounds like they did not have an accounting hedge, since it appears that the accountants forced them to MTM the long-duration assets without allowing them to MTM the long-duration liabilities. That is one difference. The other difference is that, although the insurance companies might (or might not) have been running a duration mismatch, they weren’t running a risk mismatch. The pension funds have risky assets — equities, hedge funds, real estate, private equity, etc. — which they are using to fund fixed liabilities; they are strongly encouraged to run this risk mismatch by the accounting treatment I have described, which allows them to reduce their liabilities by the expected return on their assets. That’s great….if it works out. This accounting treatment also encourages systematic underfunding, since they can take credit for their expected future investment earnings (which may or may not materialize), and overpromising benefits (since they can, at least from an accounting perspective, ignore the real cost of the promises they make). In other words, the accounting treatment encourages the worst tendencies of governments (and some corporations) to “kick the can” down the road in the hope that strong investment performance will bail them out. Or that they won’t be around when the problem becomes unavoidable. All in all, a bad policy for which we will suffer shortly and probably sooner than we think.

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By: Dave Anderson http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7286 Sat, 16 May 2015 17:58:03 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7286 I wonder how much you could think the pension situation is parallel to the situation of life insurance companies in the early 1980s, when the fast increase in interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve had caused life insurance reserves – which were heavily invested in long term bonds to match the obligations of the life insurance policies – had declined dramatically in value. The result was that the insurance companies were almost entirely bankrupt on a mark to market basis. However, they all recovered in the long run as their franchises continued and they clawed back from the hole that they had fallen into. I wonder if we could gain any insight from comparing these two sets of long term liabilities and the havoc created by unexpected interest rate changes. Obviously, the pension plan problem is the reverse of the life insurance problem, in that the value of the long term promise made by the life insurance companies is reduced by high interest while the value of the annuity promised by the employers is increased as interest rates go down. But, it seems like the comparison is interesting.

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By: Roger http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7271 Thu, 14 May 2015 14:20:45 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7271 Reminds me of something that I have often said: being an American soldier in Europe immediately after WWII must have been a pretty good gig. Lots of money and a very attractive ratio of females to males. Even you, Hirschie, would have had a good shot….

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By: David http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7270 Thu, 14 May 2015 13:45:15 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7270 The pensions issue is definitely worrying and such a clear example of procrastination on a country-wide level.

In respect to China, I am happy to not be a part of those odds. That being said, I would assume the imbalance isn’t bad for the top tier females. If anything, they accrue more benefits with their increased relative value, unless they decide they are too good for any partner.

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By: Roger http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7261 Thu, 14 May 2015 08:59:52 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7261 Thanks for your comments, Dave. If there was anyone out there who would not be deterred by my alert, it was definitely you.

To respond to your first comment: The key is your phrase “plausibly assume.” As you know, in accounting, there is a general presumption that we do not net assets and liabilities, but rather show the gross numbers on both sides of the balance sheet. One exception to this rule is the “defeasance” of a liability. In this case, the accountants allow such netting because a liability is exactly matched by payoff from a riskless asset, such as United States Treasury Bonds. The accountants allow this because there is no risk — baring a default on the Treasuries — that the asset will not produce sufficient money to pay off the liability and the cash receipts are exactly timed to the cash outflows, both of which are fixed. This strikes me as a logical accounting treatment but it is far, far from the situation with pension assets and liabilities, where both the assets and the liabilities are subject to large risks and timing variability. So, I guess that I would respond by saying that, if the extreme rigor applied to defeasance transactions is reasonable, how can a much laxer standard apply to a “defeasance” of a pension liability? The simple truth is that the accountants have collapsed in front of political pressure, from both governments and companies, and there is no logic to their position.

Your comment about China’s surplus males is interesting and chilling. I know that, like me, you are a fan of evolutionary psychology. The tendency of unattached males to aggression, along with the response to overpopulation in Rwanda that you cite, are good examples of evolutionary holdovers in human behaviour. Sometimes, reason can overrule these tendencies. Let’s hope that this is one such case.

No real comment about the allocation of Senate seats, except to say that, given the general tendency of less densely populated states to vote Republican — perhaps another manifestation of evolutionary psychology? — I would prefer to let this particular sleeping dog lie. Although this system occasionally throws up some outrageously stupid, “pork barrel” policies like the ethanol subsidy (or agricultural subsidies in general), the alternative would be far worse.

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By: Dave Anderson http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/2015/05/13/pensions-and-other-things/#comment-7259 Wed, 13 May 2015 19:42:04 +0000 http://www.economicmanblog.com/sandbox/?p=647#comment-7259 Re pensions, I agree with you, what simple counter-example would you use to deal with the simple perception that, if I owe a $107 pension payment in one year, and can plausibly assume that the $100 in my pension plan will earn 7% this year, my current net obligation is $0?
Re China’s male surplus, shouldn’t we worry that the natural result is to have a war using all these excess males as cannon fodder? Note that in Rwanda, the intensity of the genocide in each district correlated well to the degree of overpopulation in that district.
Re election systems, note that U.S. system produces the result that 75% of U.S. Senators are elected by 25% of the US population. Hence things like ethanol subsidies.

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