Posted by on December 22, 2015

The recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, have thrown the debate about ISIS into overdrive, particularly among the presidential candidates.  Several strands have emerged from these discussions, but I think that their taxonomy is not often clearly laid out.  I would therefore like to try to do this.  Since several of my readers have implored me to reduce the length of my blogs, this will be spread over several postings.

I think that there are three inter-related strands to the discussion, which I summarize below:

  • Military action against ISIS in Syria and Iraq
  • Protecting the border (including the related issue of profiling)
  • Data privacy

Today, I would like to discuss the case for military action against ISIS.

The argument here is that, in order for the world to defend itself against terrorism, ISIS must be defeated in its homeland.  ISIS must be denied territory.  This position is supported by, among the major Republican candidates, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie.  Less clear are the positions of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, who are both reluctant to engage in further foreign interventions, but who also make belligerent noises about ISIS.  The only candidate who is consistently and unambiguously against military escalation is Rand Paul.

The undercard of the Republican debates, however, features the most aggressive proponent of escalation, Senator Lindsey Graham.  Graham is the only candidate in either party proposing “boots on the ground.”  He has recently reiterated this stand in an editorial in The Wall Street Journal entitled “How to Defeat ISIS Now – Not ‘Ultimately.’”  He wrote the article with his Senate colleague, and fellow happy warrior, John McCain.  Since they are such vocal advocates of escalation, let’s use their article as the standard bearer for the position.

As the title implies, Senators McCain and Graham presume that defeating ISIS should be a goal of American foreign policy, a goal that they clearly link to the fight against terrorism:

In his address on national television Sunday night, President Obama insisted that he has a strategy to destroy…ISIS.  But what Americans see instead is an incremental, reactionary, indirect approach that assumes that time is on our side.  It is not.  The danger is growing nearer: from attacks in Paris and Beirut, to the bombing of a Russian airliner, to the Islamic State-inspired shooting in San Bernardino, Calif.

The Senators implicitly claim that only by defeating ISIS in its heartland can we protect ourselves in San Bernardino.  They apparently don’t feel that this linkage requires justification, just treating it as a self-evident truth.  But it is far from obvious that ISIS’ control of territory materially increases its willingness and ability to commit the type of attacks that we have recently seen in Paris and San Bernardino.

I have seen three arguments put forth by the proponents of attacks on ISIS [1]:

  • ISIS’ prestige is enormously enhanced by its occupation of territory and its declaration of a caliphate.  Among other things, it is a demonstration to the devout that God is on their side.  This is an essential recruiting tool for the movement.
  • ISIS uses its controlled territory to plot assaults – “Apocalyptic terrorists cannot be allowed to have sanctuary in ungoverned spaces, from which to plan attacks against the West,” to use the wording of the Senators – and train attackers.
  • ISIS uses the financial resources arising from its territory – taxes and natural resources, such as oil – to further its terrorist activities.

These are the arguments for why ISIS must be defeated militarily in order to weaken its ability to commit acts of terror.  But there is a forth element required to make the argument complete, as even the Senators admit.  The fourth element is that ISIS must be replaced with stable regimes that can and will permanently repress the group or any of its successors

Let’s examine each of these four elements in turn.

To my mind, the validity of the first step comes down to the following question: Which is the more effective recruiting tool for ISIS, (a) the prestige of declaring and holding a caliphate or (b) the ability to point to bombs falling on Moslem brothers?  Although I cannot, fortunately, put myself in the mind of an Islamic terrorist, I don’t think that there is any doubt that (b) wins.

It is obvious that the terrorist attacks are “blowback” against military action against ISIS.  This is clearly seen in the bombing of the Russian plane, which was only targeted after Russia commenced military action in Syria.  The terrorists in Paris were reported to have shouted references to Syria and Iraq during their spree.  A recent terrorist knifing in London also involved the attacker shouting references to Syria.  I think that only the deliberately obtuse could deny that blowback anger makes a better recruiting poster than territorial occupation.

I am equally unconvinced of the validity of the second element.  The San Bernardino terrorists, for example, were “inspired” by ISIS, but never trained nor plotted from this area.   Certain of the Paris terrorists had trained or fought in Syria, but I can’t see that this was essential to the attacks they committed.

The reality is that these are low-tech assaults upon soft targets.  The idea that the attackers require an ungoverned sanctuary to carry out their plottings or training is nonsense.  Almost any suburban living room would serve.

The third argument – the financial one – is probably the strongest, but even this one fails to compel.  I repeat, these attacks are low tech assaults upon soft targets which do not require a great deal of financial support.  The San Bernardino attackers, for example, were able to fund themselves, with a little help from an online “P2P” lender.  The attacks in France were more expensive, but even they would not have required anywhere near the financial resources of an ISIS.   Although ISIS requires state-like revenues to support its military actions, this is not true of its terrorism.

But it is with the last element that the proponents of military action against ISIS really fail to make their case.  Our experience in Afghanistan and Iraq – both places where we defeated our enemies militarily, as the proponents of military action against ISIS somehow forget – shows that we cannot win the war against ISIS unless we can also win the peace.  Otherwise, our enemies will simply melt away, waiting for the inevitable slackening of our resolve to re-emerge, just as the Taliban has done in Afghanistan and just as the Sunni supporters of Saddam Hussein did in Iraq (before becoming, among other things, ISIS).

Senators McCain and Graham acknowledge this in their article, which contains quotes such as:

Iraqis must win the peace, but Americans have a major stake in their success, and a unique role to play in helping them.  The only way to do so is to be present.

And:

At the same time, Islamic State’s ability to spread is directly related to the collapse of political order.  Unless America does more to help these countries make the transition to just and inclusive governments, Islamic State will find havens to pursue its evil ends.

And finally:

So the U.S. should lead an effort to assemble a multinational force…[to] destroy Islamic State in Syria.  Such a force could also help to keep the peace in a post-Assad Syria, as was done in Bosnia and Kosovo.  Here, too, if the West wins the war and leaves, it should not be surprised if violence and extremism return.

In other words, what the happy warriors have to offer is the same old “nation building” mantra that the neoconservatives have been chanting forever, combined with an apparent willingness to garrison these regions in perpetuity.  And right on cue they have defaulted to Bosnia and Kosovo as the lone alleged success story for this strategy, which is in fact no success at all and where we have recently been treated to Kosovan parliamentary debates featuring tear gas attacks from the opposition, as proof of the vibrant democracy we have fostered.

But probably the most amazing thing about the article is the total lack of proportionality.  Although tragic, the 14 deaths and 22 injuries in San Bernardino would have been, in the Detroit of my youth, about an average tally for a hot summer weekend.  Yet in response to this, Senators McCain and Graham want us to embark on a Pax Americana which has been shown to work exactly nowhere.  Looking at this, it is hard to resist the notion that they are spoiling for a fight and since they can’t claim that ISIS is developing weapons of mass destruction, San Bernardino will have to do.

Although Senators McCain and Graham would lead us into a massive overreaction, this should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the current policy of the Obama administration (and, by extension, the proposed policy of Hillary Clinton, which is basically the same with a “no-fly zone” added to show that she is more butch than her former boss).   Obama’s policy uses enough military action to expose us to “blowback” attacks and keep the ISIS recruiters busy, yet is insufficient to actually achieve military victory.  From the standpoint of the America’s interests, this is not as barmy as the proposals from the happy warriors, but it isn’t much better.

It should be noted that American politicians are not the only ones pursuing this dubious logic.  Russia’s Vladimir Putin and the UK’s David Cameron have also decided that the best way to fight terrorism is to put their countries in harm’s way for more of it.  Even Francois Hollande, on behalf of a country not known for its martial appetite, has joined in.  It is hard to see this as anything but the deplorable universal tendency for politicians to need to do something, no matter how misguided.

I continue to believe, as I stated way back in September 2013, that we don’t have a dog in this fight.  San Bernardino doesn’t change the calculation.  ISIS will eventually collapse under its own homicidal and parasitical weight, probably with the help of one or more of its neighbors, whose inactivity and divisiveness we currently underwrite.  Then ISIS will be replaced by something better…or worse…it is impossible to know in this region.  In the interim, we and our European friends should focus our efforts on isolating ourselves from the madness.  And we certainly should not go out of our way to draw further fire.

North Korea

Just in case anyone is starting to think that I am a total milquetoast, a brief word about North Korea.  Because I think that this is an excellent illustration of where an “America first” foreign policy should be genuinely concerned.

North Korea has gone suspiciously quiet, which has usually presaged a spectacular act of attention seeking and attempted blackmail.  In this case, it would likely involve further atomic weapons, including the newly issued claim to have a hydrogen bomb, or missiles capable of reaching the US.

A North Korea armed with nuclear weapons that could hit San Francisco, Seattle or Portland is an infinitely bigger threat to the US than anything ISIS can muster.  I think that it is time that we shift our attention.  And this is an area where we should definitely be willing to use overwhelming military force if the certifiable madman who runs North Korea goes too far.

Warrior: The Ultimate Sleeper Movie

For some time, I have had a guilty secret.  I love the movie Warrior, which I have briefly mentioned before.   This is a Rocky for the mixed martial arts set.  I have previously taken comfort from the fact that Nick Nolte won a best supporting actor Oscar for his role as the drunkard, n’er-do-well father of the two warring brothers, who spouts – pun intended – Moby Dick when he is in his cups.  Now I wish to note the meteoritic careers of the two leading actors.

One is Tom Hardy, whose performance in the film Legend I have already applauded; he is without a doubt one of the most interesting young actors currently on the scene.  But the real surprise is Joel Edgerton, who played the other brother.  His career has recently gone ballistic, with a major role across from Johnny Depp in Black Mass and another major role across with Christian Bale in Exodus: Gods and Kings.

At last I can come out of the closet.  I have been vindicated.

 

Roger Barris

Weybridge, United Kingdom

I Wish That I Had Said That…

“The chief difference between free capitalism and State socialism seems to be this: that under the former a man pursues his own advantage openly, frankly and honestly, whereas under the latter he does so hypocritically and under false pretenses,” by H.L. Mencken

[1]  These are the arguments I have been able to glean from my reading on the subject of the ISIS terrorism attacks.  The task is difficult because, like the Senators, proponents of military escalation don’t clearly articulate why they think that this is an effective response to terrorism.  My readers will kindly let me know if I have left any arguments out.

I acknowledge that the refugee crisis is also cited as a reason for military action against ISIS, but this is a separate issue.  A blog on the refugee crisis is long overdue, but it would be too lengthy to include in this piece.

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Comments

  1. James N. Miller
    December 22, 2015

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    The argument you left out is the one that deals with the religion of Islam, the underpinning of Islamic terrorism, and the foundation of Muslim societal backwardness. Until the basic tenants of this religion change, until Muslims start believing in the Golden Rule (which has no place in Islam), until mullahs and imams teach children peace and tolerance, we will be fighting this evil, destructive, fascist, supremacist, Jew-hating, scourge for a long time.

    • Roger
      December 24, 2015

      Leave a Reply

      Hey Jim:

      Sorry I have taken so long to come back. Christmas….

      Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that Islamic terrorism is not a problem. Nor am I saying, as so many of our cowardly politicians claim, that it is not specifically Islamic. What I am saying is that it is ineffective to fight this terrorism by spending another trillion dollars fighting a war against ISIS, just as our earlier wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Libya, for that matter) have not improved American security but in fact the opposite. I think that defeating ISIS militarily will not help us in the least to avoid attacks like San Bernardino — in fact, through the “blowback” channel that I describe in my post, I think that military action against ISIS significantly increases our exposure to these types of attacks. So, I definitely want to fight Islamic terrorism, by I want to fight it by using a small fraction of the money we have spent on these wars to improve homeland security, including through better surveillance and better immigration control. I think that this is a much more effective way of addressing this problem.

      As an aside, although Islam, as revealed in the Koran, is a fundamentally bloodier and more aggressive religion than Christianity, as least in comparison to the New Testament, the biggest difference does not lie in the texts. The biggest difference is that we in the West have, over the last 800 years, learned to disregard the more barbaric parts of the Bible (Old and New Testament). The West has more thoroughly humanized its religions than Islam has. This is all part of the failure of the Islamic world to experience the same cultural trends that we have in the West, notably the Renaissance and the Enlightenment.

      This cultural failure of the Islamic world has also produced the other major difference with the West: Islam is part of a cultural “package” that assures that the Islamic world will remain socially and economically backward. This backwardness creates a well of resentment on which religious kooks can draw in Islam, particularly by pointing to the former glories of the Islamic world. Of course, this resentment should be directed inward, but Moslems are far from the only group which indulges in a cult of victimhood.

      Roger

      • James Miller
        December 24, 2015

        Leave a Reply

        Happy Holidays, Roger.

        Do we want to fight “terrorism”? Do we want to fight ISIS? These battles are economically and tactically impossible to win. The best we can hope for is a strong defensive posture against an insidious and ugly bunch of intolerant imams (and their followers) who will blow themselves up and kill innocent civilians and never stop hating Jews, infidels, homosexuals, Christians, or blasphemers.

        I think our real fight ought to be against what you accurately refer to as Islam’s failure to experience the Enlightenment and Renaissance. If we defeat that foe, Islam’s backwardness, we are getting somewhere. I don’t know how to do this, but the first step, I would think, would be to get everyone to agree that the religion needs an overhaul. This Islamic Reformation should come from within the rank and file Islamic clergy, the so-called ‘moderate’ Muslims, who have thus far remained on the sidelines. This reformation is about 1,300 years overdue. There was a recent NYTimes article here:

        http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/21/opinion/a-medieval-antidote-to-isis.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

        that speaks of a long lost Islamic doctrine where today’s mullahs may want to start.

        • Roger
          December 24, 2015

          Leave a Reply

          I totally agree that a reformation of Islam is about 1,300 years overdue. I also agree that this has to come from within — the West is powerless to bring about this change. Among other things, this means that the type of “nation building” espoused by Senators Graham and McCain is doomed to failure because the cultural foundations for the type of secular, tolerant, non-corrupt and democratic society that the rest of the world (and many Moslems, although not enough of them) would like to see emerge does not exist.

  2. Andrew Jackson
    December 22, 2015

    Leave a Reply

    Roger,

    Thanks for the post, it’s a complex issue so I look forward to reading your further thoughts. Having lived in England during the “troubles” the bomb threats etc aren’t so shocking, the brutality of the terrorists is, particularly when they are European albeit of Muslim origin. So as you say withdrawing from the Arab world, giving them some space is logical. I would pose a question, what are your thoughts on who is supplying the arms? Once a bullet is fired ISIS need to buy a new one. If you think Russia, France,UK,Germany and USA are the largest arms producers, who is supplying them?

    Surely tighter constraints on the ISIS money supply so they can’t finance themselves would be a good starting point.

    Kind regards

    Andrew

    • Roger
      December 23, 2015

      Leave a Reply

      Hi Andrew:

      Thanks for the questions. I think that it is pretty well known by now that a lot of ISIS’ arms have been handed them by Iraqi soldiers who have been trained and supplied by the US. This is one of the reasons why ISIS has been militarily successful — basically the Iraqi soldiers, who feel no loyalty to the regime (especially when it was controlled by Nouri al-Maliki, who flagrantly favored the Shiites) did not fight. They gave a lot of US weapons to ISIS, including stockpiles of ammunition. In fact, this was so bad that Rand Paul, the Republican candidate, jokingly suggested that we should supply the Iraquis with tear-away uniforms to make it easier for them to run away from the battlefield.

      The rest of it, they buy on the black market. There is apparently a huge amount of, particularly, Soviet weapons that are available on the black market, much of it coming from the break up of Yugoslavia (which was a big producer of things like Kalashnikov assault rifles) and the Soviet Union. This is one of the reasons why things like Kalashnikovs, which are apparently very crude, are so popular. It is relatively cheap and easy to get ammunition and spare parts.

      You comments about choking off financing are also interesting. It is amazing to me that more hasn’t been done, for example, to target oil production and refining, which are classic bombing targets since WWII. I think that the reason for this is the risk to civilians. This is one of the many ways in which the West is fighting in this region with at least one hand tied behind its back. I think that the interest in working with Russia — which at the end of the day is not a huge military power — comes in part from the fact that everyone thinks that they will have a freer hand.

      Be well.

      Roger

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